Amprius Technologies (AMPX) Q3 2026 earnings review
Amprius raises its sales plan, but cuts its profit target
Amprius is selling more drone batteries than ever in the United States, but rising development costs delayed its profit turnaround. The silicon-anode battery maker grew third-quarter revenue 83% from a year ago to $39.1 million as domestic sales more than doubled from last quarter. Chief executive Tom Stepien raised the full-year sales plan to $145 million and announced a $75 million U.S. defense contract to fund domestic production in 2028.
| Revenue | $39.1M +83% from a year ago, +15% from Q2 |
|---|---|
| U.S. revenue | $12.2M 2.3x last quarter (31% of sales) |
| Full-year revenue outlook | Raised $5M to $145M (+99% from 2025) |
| Full-year Adjusted EBITDA outlook | Cut $1.5M to at least $2.5M (from at least $4.0M) |
⚖️ Verdict: ⚪ Neutral
The story is unchanged because domestic defense wins strengthened the revenue case while an operating profit outlook cut confirmed our prior cost concerns. Higher research spending kept Adjusted EBITDA negative at -$1.0 million, forcing finance chief Ricardo C. Rodriguez to lower the full-year cash profit target. By our math, hitting the unchanged full-year gross margin and net loss goals still requires a jump to a 35% gross margin in the fourth quarter.
The question now is whether fourth-quarter gross margin can jump nearly eight percentage points to hit the untouched profit goals, or whether full-year net loss will miss too. Government grant credits and European pouch-cell orders could lift fourth-quarter margins, while lower-margin U.S. shipments and elevated research costs could hold them back. Fourth-quarter results and the quarterly filing's backlog and Ukraine disclosures will settle it.
🐂 Bull Case
U.S. Sales Doubled as Defense Contract Funds 2028 Output
Amprius makes silicon-anode lithium-ion batteries that store up to twice the energy of standard graphite cells for drones and aircraft. To sell to the U.S. military, the battery maker must comply with the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), a law restricting components from countries of concern.
U.S. revenue rose 2.3 times from last quarter to $12.2 million, reaching 31% of total sales by our math. The California group also won a $75 million U.S. Department of War contract, with $22.3 million already committed, "supporting the conversion of an existing battery production line with planned output of up to 12 million NDAA-compliant cells annually in 2028".
This award matters because U.S. defense rules require domestic or allied cell production by January 2028, and government money now pays for that capacity build. In addition, the $8.0 million of government grant income assumed in this year's outlook helps fund current domestic engineering work.
What to watch: December 2026 production startup on the expanded Fremont pilot line, funded by the Defense Innovation Unit. Starting on time will show that the team can install domestic electrode tools without delays before tackling the larger 2028 factory conversion.
Customers Expand Orders as SiCore 500 Uses Standard Tools
"Our third quarter results demonstrate the strength of our company’s technology leadership and our ability to convert growing customer demand into meaningful financial performance," chief executive Tom Stepien said. Quarterly sales reached $39.1 million, up 83% from a year ago and 15% from last quarter, prompting a third raise to the full-year revenue outlook.
Amprius launched SiCore 500, a second-generation silicon-anode battery cell that packs 500 watt-hours per kilogram and runs "on conventional lithium-ion manufacturing equipment". Previously, only its older SiMaxx cells reached that energy density, and they required custom tools at the Fremont pilot lab. The cell maker also expanded deliveries to German drone builder Quantum Systems and won orders for a solar stratospheric aircraft and a deep-sea defense vehicle.
Running a 500 watt-hour cell on standard machinery matters because outside contract factories can now mass-produce the highest-energy battery without custom equipment bottlenecks. What to watch: initial commercial shipments under the $100 million Stark Future electric-motorcycle contract in early 2027, which will test whether contract partners can deliver high-volume mobility orders alongside defense drones.
🐻 Bear Case
Higher R&D Spending Triggered an Operating Profit Outlook Cut
For three quarters, Amprius paired higher revenue targets with a steady full-year profit goal of at least $4.0 million in Adjusted EBITDA, which is operating cash profit before stock pay, depreciation, and one-time facility costs. This quarter, the battery maker cut that full-year target to at least $2.5 million while holding its full-year gross margin floor at 28%.
- Q3 Adjusted EBITDA: -$1.0 million, missing the +$3.4 million second-half quarterly pace implied by the old plan
- Research and development: $6.4 million, up 155% from a year ago and up 4.7 percentage points of revenue to 16.4%
- Selling, general, and administrative costs: $8.8 million, down 3.1 percentage points of revenue from a year ago to 22.6%
- Implied Q4 hurdles by our math: 34.8% gross margin, $5.6 million in Adjusted EBITDA, and $3.6 million in GAAP net profit
The cut matters because rising product development costs absorbed the gross profit gains from higher volume, leaving nine-month GAAP net loss at $13.6 million against a full-year loss cap of $10.0 million. Because gross margin dipped slightly from 27.3% in Q2 to 26.9% in Q3 as U.S. sales rose, reaching the full-year margin and net loss targets now requires a nearly eight-point margin jump in the final quarter.
What to watch: fourth-quarter gross margin and research spending in the full-year report. Anything below a 34.8% gross margin at the $43.3 million revenue implied by the outlook will cause the business to miss its 28% annual margin floor.
Working Capital and Equipment Spending Drained Cash
"The third quarter once again proved the scalability of our fabless technology and process-owning strategy," finance chief Ricardo C. Rodriguez said, adding that the team meets demand "without the need for capital investment for manufacturing". Under this contract-manufacturing setup, partner factories build the cells while Amprius owns the silicon-anode process.
The cash flow statement cuts against that capital-light framing. By our math, capital spending on property and equipment jumped to $5.2 million in the third quarter, up from $1.8 million in Q2, bringing nine-month spending to $8.0 million against an annual cap of $10.0 million. At the same time, unpaid customer bills rose to $45.9 million — more than an entire quarter of sales — and inventory more than doubled since December to $15.9 million.
Together, inventory, prepaid items, and customer receivables consumed $13.0 million of free cash flow in the third quarter by our math, even though operating losses held steady. What to watch: fourth-quarter accounts receivable collections and capital spending, because another $13 million quarterly cash burn would push total cash below $50 million entering 2027.
Risks this quarter didn't answer
Five standing business and supply-chain risks could not be checked from the earnings release alone and await the quarterly filing or conference call.
- Ukraine revenue concentration: shipments to Ukraine-based customers made up 31% of Q2 sales; the quarterly filing's geographic note will show whether rapid U.S. growth reduced that exposure.
- Remaining performance obligations (backlog): sat at $36.5 million in June, covering just 1.1 times quarterly sales; the filing's contract footnote will show if multi-quarter order cover improved.
- NDAA component supplier contracts: Stepien pledged last quarter to sign all remaining compliant material suppliers by Q3; the conference call must confirm completion.
- China export controls and Berzelius reliance: Chinese battery export control suspensions expire in November 2026, and purchase volumes from related-party silicon supplier Berzelius remain undisclosed.
- Customer receivable concentration: two buyers accounted for 54% of unpaid bills in Q2; the filing's risk note will reveal whether the $45.9 million Q3 balance rests on the same pair.
💲 Other KPIs
Cash reserves fell by $12.9 million during the third quarter and sit $30.1 million below year-end 2025. The nine-month decline includes a one-time $20.0 million payment in January to exit the Brighton, Colorado lease, partially offset by $25.5 million raised from warrant and stock option exercises.
The average share count rose 15.6% from a year ago and 2.0% from the second quarter. Warrant exercises brought in $14.2 million and employee stock options added $11.3 million across the first nine months, lifting common shares outstanding to 146.6 million at the end of September.
Combined current and long-term lease obligations rose slightly from $6.4 million in June but remain down 82% from $39.9 million at the end of 2025. Terminating the 15-year Colorado factory lease in January removed over $110 million in future commitments and left the balance sheet with zero debt.
🔮 Guidance
Raised. The full-year target moved up $5 million to $145 million, nearly doubling last year's sales. By our math, that leaves $43.3 million for Q4, up 11% from Q3 and 72% from a year ago. It is the third raise this year following increases of $5 million in May and $10 million in August.
Unchanged. Management kept the full-year gross margin floor at 28% after raising it from 25% last quarter. Because gross margin averaged 25.1% across the first nine months ($25.5 million on $101.7 million of sales), hitting 28% for the full year requires a 34.8% margin in Q4 by our math, nearly eight points above Q3.
Cut. The battery maker lowered its full-year Adjusted EBITDA floor by $1.5 million (the reconciliation table prints a $2.7 million point estimate). With nine-month Adjusted EBITDA at -$3.1 million after Q3's -$1.0 million loss, reaching the $2.5 million floor requires $5.6 million in Q4 by our math, a 13% margin.
Unchanged. The plan still caps the full-year GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders at $10.0 million, including Q2's $1.9 million non-cash warrant charge. Because the nine-month loss has already reached $13.6 million, the outlook requires at least $3.6 million of positive GAAP net profit in Q4 by our math.
Tightened by one cent. On the unchanged 143.4 million full-year weighted-average share count assumption, a $10.0 million net loss rounds to $0.07 per share. Nine-month loss per share already stands at $0.10, so meeting this cap depends on the same $3.6 million Q4 net profit swing.
Unchanged. Full-year property and equipment spending remains capped at $10.0 million. After spending $2.8 million in the first half and $5.2 million in Q3 by our math ($8.0 million across nine months), the cap leaves at most $2.0 million for Q4 as Fremont pilot-line installation wraps up.
❓ Key Questions
What drives the eight-point Q4 gross margin jump?
Nine-month gross margin is 25.1%, so the 28% full-year floor requires 34.8% in Q4 by our math. Does that jump rely on higher-margin European pouch mix, $8.0 million of assumed government grant credits, or tariff refunds?
How much of Q3 revenue shipped to Ukraine?
Shipments to Ukraine-based customers represented 31% of Q2 sales. With U.S. revenue more than doubling to $12.2 million in Q3, how much did Ukraine concentration decline in the quarterly filing's geographic table?
Where did Remaining Performance Obligations end the quarter?
Contracted backlog in the 10-Q sat at $36.5 million in June, down from $53.3 million in Q3 2025. Did multi-quarter customer orders rebuild the order book, or does Q4 still depend on in-quarter orders?
Who is the U.S. manufacturing partner for 2028?
The $75 million Department of War contract funds the conversion of an existing U.S. battery line for up to 12 million cells a year in 2028. Is this facility run by Nanotech Energy or a new partner?
Why did accounts receivable climb to $45.9 million?
Unpaid customer bills now exceed an entire quarter's revenue at 117% of Q3 sales, and two customers owed 54% of the balance in June. Have collections accelerated in October, or have payment terms lengthened?