Amplitude (AMPL) Q4 2025 earnings review
AI Pivot Pays Off: RPO Surges, but Guidance Plays It Safe
Amplitude closed FY25 with its strongest execution in years. The pivot to an 'AI-native' platform is validating the bull case: ARR growth accelerated to 17%, and Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) jumped 35% YoY to $417.7M, signaling deep enterprise traction. The company is successfully consolidating tool stacks, with 74% of ARR now coming from multi-product customers. However, FY26 revenue guidance implies a deceleration to ~15% growth, creating a disconnect between the surging backlog and near-term revenue recognition.
🐂 Bull Case
The move upmarket is working. RPO grew 35% YoY, significantly outpacing revenue growth. Customers with >$1M ARR grew 33% YoY to 56. This backlog builds a defensive moat and high visibility for future periods.
The single-product risk is fading. 74% of ARR now comes from enterprise and multi-product customers. This consolidation play drove Net Retention Rate (NRR) to 105%, continuing a three-quarter improvement streak.
🐻 Bear Case
Despite a 35% surge in RPO and 17% ARR growth, management guided FY26 revenue to $390-$398M, implying ~15% growth. This suggests either extreme conservatism or that the backlog duration is lengthening significantly, delaying the P&L impact.
While Non-GAAP metrics look healthy ($4.2M Op Income), the company posted a GAAP operating loss of $19.1M in Q4. Stock-Based Compensation remains high at $22.8M (25% of revenue), continuing to dilute real shareholder returns.
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢
Bullish. Amplitude has successfully re-accelerated the business. The divergence between high RPO growth (35%) and moderate revenue guidance (15%) suggests a coiled spring for future periods. The platform consolidation thesis is proven by the 74% multi-product adoption.
Key Themes
Enterprise & RPO Velocity
The most bullish signal in the report is RPO growth of 35% YoY, reaching $417.7M. This metric has consistently accelerated throughout FY25 (30% -> 31% -> 37% -> 35%). It confirms that large enterprises are committing to longer-term deals, validating Amplitude as a strategic platform rather than a disposable tool. The count of >$1M ARR customers growing 33% reinforces this.
Agentic Analytics Product Cycle
Amplitude is aggressively deploying 'Agentic AI' features. The Q4 release highlights 'Global Agent' (system-wide AI analyst) and 'Specialized Agents' (dashboard monitoring). Unlike generic chat wrappers, these agents utilize Amplitude's proprietary behavioral graph. This innovation is critical for expanding the user base beyond technical analysts to broader business teams.
Conservative Fiscal 2026 Outlook
Management initiated FY26 revenue guidance at $390-$398M. The midpoint ($394M) represents ~14.8% YoY growth. This is a deceleration from the 17% growth posted in Q4 and lags significantly behind the 35% RPO growth. This indicates that the 're-acceleration' story may face a ceiling in the near term, likely due to revenue recognition timing on these larger, longer enterprise contracts.
Net Retention Recovery
Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate (NRR) has fully recovered from its post-COVID slump. NRR hit 105% in Q4, up from 104% in Q3 and 101% in Q1. This metric proves that the 'land and expand' motion is working again, driven by cross-selling new modules like Session Replay and Experimentation.
Stock-Based Compensation Drag
GAAP profitability remains distant largely due to SBC. In Q4, SBC was $22.8M, or ~25% of revenue. While down from $35.5M in the prior year quarter, it remains a significant hurdle. The gap between Non-GAAP Net Income ($5.6M) and GAAP Net Loss (-$17.7M) is almost entirely driven by compensation costs.
Other KPIs
Accelerating. FCF doubled YoY from $11.7M in FY24. The FCF margin improved to ~7%. The company is proving it can generate cash while investing in AI R&D, ending the year with $252M in cash and marketable securities (short + long term).
Accelerating. Margin expanded significantly from 0.6% in Q3 2025 and 0.3% in Q4 2024. This demonstrates operating leverage is kicking in as revenue scales, despite heavy product investment.
Stable Growth. Increased 18% YoY. While solid, this is slightly slower than the 33% growth seen in the >$1M cohort, indicating the company's momentum is skewed heavily toward the very high end of the market.
Guidance
Stable. The midpoint ($92.7M) implies ~1.4% sequential growth vs Q4. This is seasonally typical for enterprise software (Q4 flush -> Q1 reset) but unexciting given the Q4 momentum. Implied YoY growth is ~16%.
Decelerating. The midpoint ($394M) implies ~14.8% YoY growth, down from the ~17% exit rate in Q4 2025. This suggests management is not baking in any assumption of macro improvement or rapid AI monetization in H1.
Accelerating. At the midpoint ($10M), this represents nearly 8x growth over FY25's $1.2M. Management is clearly pivoting toward profitable growth, aiming for roughly 2.5% annual operating margin at the midpoint.
Key Questions
RPO vs Revenue Divergence
Total RPO grew 35% YoY, yet FY26 revenue guidance implies only ~15% growth. Is this purely conservatism, or has the average contract duration extended significantly, delaying revenue recognition?
AI Monetization Timeline
With the launch of Global Agent and Specialized Agents, when does Amplitude expect AI features to become a distinct revenue line item versus just a retention tool? Is there a pricing uplift built into the FY26 guide?
Gross Margin Pressure
Non-GAAP Gross Margin compressed slightly to 76.5% from 77.3% YoY. As AI workloads (inference costs) increase, what is the long-term gross margin target?