Amgen (AMGN) Q2 2026 earnings review
Growth Drivers Successfully Outrun the Patent Cliff
Amgen delivered a powerful Q2 2026, proving its thesis that new growth pillars can outpace the erosion of its legacy franchises. Total revenues grew 10% year-over-year to $10.1 billion, driven entirely by volume (+9%). Non-GAAP EPS increased 4% to $6.29. The headline story is the severe, expected collapse of Prolia and XGEVA against the explosive, accelerating growth of Repatha, EVENITY, and the biosimilar portfolio. Management demonstrated high confidence by raising full-year 2026 revenue and EPS guidance for the second consecutive quarter.
🐂 Bull Case
Twenty-two products delivered double-digit sales growth. Key assets Repatha (+37%), EVENITY (+38%), and TEZSPIRE (+42%) are not just growing; they are accelerating as they penetrate vast, undertreated primary care markets.
Despite a massive step-up in R&D for the MariTide Phase 3 program, Amgen raised both revenue and earnings guidance, signaling immense confidence in near-term operational cash flows.
🐻 Bear Case
Prolia and XGEVA, historically multi-billion-dollar anchors, fell 32% and 34% respectively as biosimilars flood the market. The volume and price destruction here will persist for years.
The FDA has requested the withdrawal of TAVNEOS ($150M Q2 sales, +36% YoY). While Amgen is fighting this, losing a key rare disease asset would deal a blow to the portfolio's diversification.
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢
Bullish. Management is executing a textbook portfolio transition. They are losing billions in legacy sales but replacing them with higher-quality, long-duration volume growth across multiple therapeutic areas.
Key Themes
General Medicine Franchise: Accelerating Through Volume
Repatha ($953M, +37%) and EVENITY ($714M, +38%) are the undisputed stars of the quarter. Repatha is successfully leveraging its landmark VESALIUS-CV primary prevention data to expand out of specialty cardiology and into broader primary care. This is a stable, multi-year growth trajectory driven entirely by volume rather than price, which is critical in the current regulatory environment.
Oncology and Biosimilars Execution
IMDELLTRA ($288M, +115%) is rapidly becoming the standard of care in 2nd-line small cell lung cancer (SCLC) and is advancing into frontline studies. Additionally, the biosimilar portfolio is proving to be a massive cash engine. PAVBLU (biosimilar to EYLEA) generated $287M, up 121% YoY, capitalizing on its position as the only commercially available EYLEA biosimilar in the U.S. during the period.
MariTide: The "New Paradigm" Obesity Bet
Amgen is betting the farm on MariTide. It has launched a staggering 11 Phase 3 trials across obesity, Type 2 diabetes, sleep apnea, and heart failure. The key differentiator is the antibody-peptide conjugate design, aiming to prove that a monthly, every-8-week, or even quarterly injection can safely replace the weekly cadence of current GLP-1 market leaders. If successful, this resolves the chronic persistence failure seen with weekly injectables.
The Legacy Bone Franchise Cliff
The long-feared patent cliff has officially arrived for the bone franchise. Prolia dropped 32% (20% lower volume, 12% lower price) and XGEVA collapsed 34% (22% lower volume, 8% lower price). Multiple biosimilars have launched globally, and management explicitly stated more are expected. This represents a decelerating, structural headwind that will strip billions from the top line over the next two years.
Macro Impact: IRA Price Setting Bites Enbrel
Enbrel sales fell 4% to $580M. However, looking under the hood reveals a darker picture: net selling price plummeted 22%. This price destruction was directly attributed to U.S. Medicare Part D price setting under the Inflation Reduction Act (effective Jan 1, 2026) and higher 340B Program mix. This regulatory macro reality limits Amgen's historical reliance on price increases to offset volume softness in legacy auto-immune drugs.
TAVNEOS Regulatory Battle
TAVNEOS grew 36% to $150M, but its future is in jeopardy. The FDA has requested a voluntary withdrawal from the U.S. market over concerns stemming from data readjudication by its previous owner (ChemoCentryx). Amgen formally requested a hearing in June and submitted supporting materials in July. This overhang introduces significant binary risk to an otherwise strong rare disease portfolio.
Other KPIs
An exceptional result, up nearly 84% from $1.9 billion a year ago. The acceleration reflects the lack of a prior-year repatriation tax payment, alongside very strong current-period cash generation from operations. This easily covers the $1.4 billion dividend and provides ample firepower for future repurchases.
Up 10% YoY, accounting for 19.4% of product sales. This stable-to-accelerating investment is primarily funding the massive 11-study Phase 3 program for MariTide, as well as broader late-stage clinical support. Amgen is aggressively spending its current cash windfall to buy its future in the obesity market.
Decelerating profitability profile. Cost of sales as a percentage of product sales jumped 1.9 points from 17.7% in Q2 2025. Management attributed this to higher profit share expenses, higher manufacturing costs, and an unfavorable shift in sales mix (likely lower-margin biosimilars replacing high-margin legacy biologics).
Guidance
Accelerating. This is a "beat and raise" narrative. The previous Q1 guidance was $37.1 to $38.5 billion. The new midpoint ($38.8 billion) implies roughly 5.5% YoY growth against FY25's $36.75 billion, proving that the "six key growth drivers" are more than enough to offset the Prolia/XGEVA collapse.
Accelerating. Upgraded from the prior range of $21.70 to $23.10. The midpoint of $22.90 implies roughly 5% growth over FY25's $21.84. This demonstrates excellent cost leverage despite the structural headwinds in Cost of Sales and heavy R&D build.
Stable. Unchanged from prior guidance. This elevated level of spending (vs $1.85 billion in FY25) reflects Amgen's heavy investment in manufacturing capacity—specifically to support the potential scale-up requirements for MariTide and the expanding biosimilars network.
Key Questions
TAVNEOS Endgame
With the FDA hearing materials submitted on July 23, what is the realistic timeline for a final decision on TAVNEOS? If withdrawn, what is the specific EPS hit for 2026 and 2027?
MariTide Switch Logistics
In the MARITIME-SWITCH study, how are you handling the pharmacological wash-out period for patients moving from high-dose weekly GLP-1s to an every-8-week MariTide dose without causing severe GI events or rebound weight gain?
IRS Tax Dispute Overhang
While not heavily featured in the Q2 text, the 2016-2018 NOPA mentioned in Q1 remains a material risk. What is the latest communication timeline with the IRS regarding these "significant adjustments"?
Subcutaneous Biosimilar Defense
As branded competitors (Keytruda, Opdivo, Eylea) aggressively migrate patients to proprietary subcutaneous formulations, how does Amgen plan to defend the long-term cash flows of its IV-based biosimilar pipeline?