AbbVie (ABBV) Q4 2025 earnings review
The Pivot is Complete: Growth Platform Eclipses Legacy Drag
AbbVie concluded 2025 with a definitive statement: the 'Humira Cliff' is in the rearview mirror. Q4 revenue grew 10% YoY to $16.6B, driven by the massive acceleration of the immunology duo (Skyrizi and Rinvoq) and a surging Neuroscience portfolio. While GAAP earnings were suppressed by significant IPR&D charges ($0.71/share impact), the underlying business is firing on all cylinders. Management's confidence is solidified by FY26 guidance projecting Adjusted EPS of $14.37-$14.57—a massive step up from FY25's $10.00—signaling a return to robust earnings growth.
🐂 Bull Case
Skyrizi and Rinvoq combined for $7.38B in Q4 sales, growing 32.5% and 29.5% respectively. They now generate nearly 6x the revenue of Humira, validating the company's long-term replacement strategy.
FY26 Adjusted EPS guidance of $14.37-$14.57 implies ~44% YoY growth. Even excluding the noise of 2025 IPR&D charges, this represents strong double-digit underlying growth.
🐻 Bear Case
The Aesthetics portfolio declined 0.9% YoY, marking another quarter of stagnation. While the decline is stabilizing compared to Q1/Q2, the segment has yet to return to growth.
Oncology revenue fell 1.5% as Imbruvica continues to plummet (-20.8%). Newer assets like Elahere (+22.6%) are growing but are not yet large enough to offset the legacy drag.
⚖️ Verdict: 🟢🟢
Strong Buy. AbbVie has successfully navigated one of the largest patent cliffs in pharma history. With the growth platform now generating the vast majority of revenue and a massive earnings step-up guided for 2026, the thesis has shifted from 'defensive' to 'high-growth'.
Key Themes
Immunology: Skyrizi is the New King
Skyrizi is accelerating, growing 32.5% YoY to breach $5B in a single quarter ($5.006B). Combined with Rinvoq ($2.374B, +29.5%), the 'Ex-Humira' immunology portfolio is growing at ~31%. This growth is volume-driven across IBD and Psoriasis indications, proving that biosimilars are not hindering the uptake of next-gen therapies.
Neuroscience: The Silent Growth Engine
Neuroscience is accelerating, up 17.9% YoY in Q4 (vs +15% range in prior quarters) to nearly $3B. The segment is diversified and durable: Vraylar (+10.5%), Botox Therapeutic (+13.4%), and Qulipta (+42.6%) are all delivering double-digit gains. This segment has become a reliable second pillar behind Immunology.
Aesthetics: Stabilization, Not Recovery
Aesthetics revenue decreased 0.9% YoY to $1.29B. While this is an improvement from the double-digit declines seen earlier in 2025, Juvederm remains a drag (-10.7%). The segment has not yet benefitted from the expected economic recovery or the 'Botox Cosmetic' rebound (+4.2%) is being offset by filler weakness.
Imbruvica continues to weigh on Oncology
Imbruvica sales fell 20.8% YoY to $671M, continuing its multi-year slide due to competitive pressures. This drag caused the total Oncology segment to shrink 1.5% despite growth from Venclexta (+8.6%) and Elahere (+22.6%). The pivot in Oncology is taking longer than in Immunology.
IPR&D Charges Clouding GAAP Results
Q4 results included a $0.71/share hit from Acquired IPR&D. For FY25, the impact was $2.76/share. While these represent investments in the pipeline (e.g., Cerevel, acquisitions), the frequency and magnitude make GAAP EPS ($2.36 FY25) vastly disconnected from Adjusted EPS ($10.00 FY25), complicating valuation based on statutory earnings.
Other KPIs
Stable. The company maintains an elite gross margin profile (GAAP 72.6%), allowing for significant R&D reinvestment (15.4% of sales) while maintaining profitability.
Decelerating Decline. Down 25.9% YoY. While still shrinking, the rate of decline has improved significantly from the ~50-58% drops seen in Q1-Q3 2025. The 'cliff' phase appears to be leveling out into a 'tail' phase.
Stable. The tax rate remains consistent with the ~18% range seen throughout 2025, providing predictability for FY26 modeling.
Guidance
Accelerating. This guidance represents a ~44% increase over FY 2025's $10.00 outcome. Even adjusting for the ~$2.76 IPR&D headwind in 2025, the implied operational growth is robust double-digits.
Key Questions
Aesthetics Turnaround Timeline
With Aesthetics stabilizing at -0.9%, when does management expect a return to positive growth, and is the weakness in Juvederm (-10.7%) structural or cyclical?
Oncology Strategy
With Imbruvica dragging the segment down, is the current pipeline (Elahere, Epkinly) sufficient to return the Oncology unit to growth in 2026, or is further M&A required?
Humira Tail
The decline in Humira slowed to -26% in Q4 from -55% previously. Is this the new run-rate for erosion, or do you expect another step-down in 2026 due to formulary changes?